AWB Gun Ban - Place your bets how it will unfold.

[alfsauve]

I think the NRA, the SAF and others will put up a good fight.  I'm not (or at least I don't think I am) an alarmist or a Chicken Little, but I'll lay out for you one possible scenario on how this might play out.    MIGHT.

This is just my crazy ramblings.   Maybe I'll remember to revisit this list next year.  

What's your scenario in how this will be played out?


1) The "high capacity" issue will come first.   They'll propose to ban anything that is capable of holding more than 5 rounds

2) They'll change that to 6 to accommodate most revolvers.  (See how compromising we are?)

3)  Compromises will change this to semi-autos only.  

4)  Anti-gun will want to include lever actions.

5)  Magazine bans greater than 5.

6)  Pro gun sides will push for 10 rounds.

7)  Compromise, semi-auto rifle only ban.  Add to it magazine feed shotguns.

8 )  Anti's will propose no on-line sales.

9)  Compromise on private transfers will need FFL.
     (Which brings up questions on how to handle estates, gifts and just letting someone use my gun on the range.   Remember it's not the "SALE" but the "TRANSFER" that's regulated.)

10)  Anti's will propose to confiscate all existing semi-autos.  No-grandfather, no compensation, 30 days to surrender all weapons, and suspend 4th and 5th amendment for confiscation purposes.

11)  Pro's will compromise with a year and $100 compensation.   The 5th will be salvaged but LEOs will have cart blanche search and seizure based on 4473s ... or any rumor they can come up with.

12)  Any mental health history will be added to NICS database.   Even if you went in for treatment of compulsive eating disorder.

13) Limit and record all ammo purchases.   Primers will be the regulated reloading component.

14)  Pro forces will compromise with a .22lr exemption, but users will be limited to 100 rounds per caliber.   Certified competitors may have 500 at any one time.

[alfsauve]

Yes I do believe there are people who really do want it to unfold just like the bottom picture.

[Ichiban]

No, they want body bags.
And they will get them.

[tombogan03884]

No more imports for sure, likely no more private sale, possibly no more standard capacity mags, (possession a felony)
nothing that looks like a military gun.
To quote Paul Helmke in 94, it's not everything they want, but it's a good start.

I have a counter compromise.
When we repeal the GCA 68 and the NFA we will allow them to keep the reopened Machine gun registry, and dealer licensing.
For now.

I hate to have to ask this Alf but what tipped you off ?
Was it the editorials demanding door to door confiscation ?
We fought a war once for arms stolen from an armory .
What will we do for the ones we've actually paid for ?

[TAB]

I think they will run into the same prob they did last time.   that being it is very hard to pass a law based on type of gun.  They will go after evil features.   rather or not it will pass is going to down to timing and nothing more.

[Sponsor]

[alfsauve]

I have a counter compromise.
When we repeal the GCA 68 and the NFA we will allow them to keep the reopened Machine gun registry, and dealer licensing.
For now.

That's what we should lay on the table.  Repeal every gun control act since 1900.

[TAB]

I disagree with that, there are some very good laws,  like having guns being serialized.  Gca 68.    lets be clear, there are a bunch of gun laws that are conplete crap, but there are good ones as well.  Generally speaking they are over the use of the gun.  Not shooting a gun in the air comes to mind.

[Respen33]

I would expect that there will be a mandatory mental health revision out into this, as stated before and above. I would suspect ANY person who has had medication presented for any mental issue or has seeked psychological/psychiatrist assistance for any diagnosed personality disorder will be brought into question.

That is probably the only level of "no grandfathering" that may apply.

[tombogan03884]

I would expect that there will be a mandatory mental health revision out into this, as stated before and above. I would suspect ANY person who has had medication presented for any mental issue or has seeked psychological/psychiatrist assistance for any diagnosed personality disorder will be brought into question.

That is probably the only level of "no grandfathering" that may apply.

I agree in principle but we need to work on the wording or they will use it deny people who got help for stupid stuff like insomnia, or weight loss.
They already tried to use that as grounds to disarm veterans.

Anything that addressed mental health would need to go beyond simply denying gun rights to the dangerously unstable.
In both of the last 2 cases, Portland Or, and Conn. the shooter used stolen guns .
In China and Japan where guns are no available they use knives, hammers , cleavers, and poison gas.
The answer is not to try to keep these people away from potential weapons, that isn't possible.
We must find a way to keep them away from potential victims.

[TAB]

We also have to prevent what happen to my great uncle.    dieing of colon cancer, in withdrawel from methadone for pain.  He said I want to die in the hospital.  Some one over heard him and 51 50 (72 psy hold   no guns for ever) him.  I had to go get his guns before la county destoryed them.   what were these evil baby killing devices?    a bolt action shot gun and a single shot 22 rifle.    he was such a threat to the population and himself...