Coronavirus Outbreak

[Rastus]

So 56 million people (1-1/2 time the population of Canada) are quarantined in China due to the Coronavirus outbreak.  Over 30 people in Britain have the disease and health experts there fear that the UK is on the brink of it's own outbreak.  Some UK experts say this outbreak could be as bad as the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic that killed 50 million people. 

Now a third confirmed case of the virus was found in Orange County, California.  Not to be an alarmist, but I look at the medical rhetoric about the coronavirus being "a minimal risk of local transmission" with a jaundiced eye.  It must transmit with at least some ease because the Chicoms admit to at least 56 million people being quarantined...you don't do that sort of thing unless there is a reason for it. 

Knowing that medical professionals are still people and have the same habits the general population has like getting bored, working sloppily, cutting corners, etc., I am keeping a close eye on the "background" information versus the news coverage.  Things just like in the above paragraph....officials here say there is a minimal risk of transmission versus the crash course preps already implemented in China.  Any apparently conflicting information that shows a discontinuity between official accounts and actual actions taken is to be looked for. 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-hospitals-arent-ready-for-the-coronavirus-11579975968

The above link is a decent article decrying US hospitals being sloppy with administrating controls to prevent infections from spreading.  The article points out that in Toronto Canada they had the same infection controls we have today and cited that two people infected with SARS virus showed up in Toronto and Vancouver hospitals.

The person in Vancouver did not spread SARS.  The person in the Toronto hospital did spread SARS.  44 people died directly from the Toronto failure to contain the SARS virus.  77 % of the people who contracted SARS were hospital health care workers or patients in the hospital and 17% of the SARS cases got it at home from their family member who was in the Toronto hospital as a worker or patient.  So, 84% of the cases were directly attributable to escape from the hospital.  Remember, 44 people died and SARS is not nearly as communicable as this new Chinese coronavirus. 

There only seems to be ~3% coronavirus mortality rate if the Chicoms are telling the truth...and truth for them would be a change.  While SARS has a very high mortality rate around 14% I think there is no comfort in 3% with the heightened transmissibility that appears to be the case with coronavirus.

[Rastus]

Just in...the BBC is reporting the coronavirus spreads before symptoms appear.  Incubation period still appears to be unknown with estimates at 1 to 14 days. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51254523

[Timothy]

American hospitals are FILTHY places to get stuck in....

Avoiding them is advised!

[Rastus]

No significant or unanticipated changes in the Coronavirus in China this Monday morning.  Just an anticipated progression.

Still bears watching.  The stock market is set to drop a bit this morning...which if this blows over will have been a buying opportunity.

[TAB]

Its been a long time since the world had an actual epidemic. I am honestly not worried about

[Sponsor]

[Magoo541]

You know what goes good with Coronavirus...





Lymes Disease 

[PegLeg45]

"I expect perdition, always have. I keep this building at my back, and several guns handy, in case perdition arrives in a form that's susceptible to bullets. I expect it will come in the disease form, though. I'm susceptible to diseases, and you can't shoot a damn disease.
~ Judge Roy Bean, Streets of Laredo

[Pathfinder]

I figure there are 2 primary reasons for the mass hysteria geing ginned up:
1. TPTB are ginning up hysteria for some as yet unseen reason; or
2. they ain't telling us something about this virus that justified the hysteria on their part.

There are likely others, but something to consider is this: I read about an Israeli micro-biologist who noted there is a Chinese Army bio-weapons lab in Wuhan Province. It's been long know that the best way to weaponize a virus is to make its transmissibility high and its incubation period long, thereby infecting as many as possible before the outbreak occurs, all making it harder to combat.

[nosimij]

Even if this stays inside China, and I hope it does, the lockdowns and restrictions will start to affect the just in time inventory processes of US and world wide distribution systems.  From that front the timing could not have been better since the Chinese New year had everyone ready for a 2 week shutdown.  That made the first 2 weeks free.  Suppliers were expected to be back online on Monday, now that is pushed back a week.  Parts expected on Manufacturing floors with Chinses production starting now are not going to be there.  Yes this is likely 4 to 6 weeks from now but material flies from Chinese airports everyday.  So now is a time to begin to get ready. 

If this continues what I expect to see:
-  Reduced income for factory workers because they will be sent home because they can not assemble it without part X coming in from China.  Fans, Electric motors, Circuit cards, cables,  cable connectors, computers are all things that come in from Asia. This will be across industries.
-  Consumer goods will start to be hard to find.  We all know that most of the goods a Walmart come from China.  We all know that most companies do not have warehouses they have distribution hubs. Putting goods in a warehouse and sitting on it for long periods of time is expensive on many fronts.

Even if the medical issues do not extend beyond the China borders the effects will be here soon.  I know it is on the mind of my employer.  I am not in the know enough to know what the effect is but I know management is worried about it.  As they should be.

[Solus]

World Health Organization declares coronavirus outbreak a global health emergency

https://www.foxnews.com/health/world-health-organization-declares-coronavirus-outbreak-a-global-health-emergency