Economic Predictions - Gerald Celente

[palmbay lou]

Hello to all, I heard this person speaking on Glenn Beck - Fox News and decided to learn more about this person.  I have not yet learned all that I feel I need to know and would like to hear from others who have some background on Mr. Celente.  I am posting a Youtube video link of his personal predictions for the 2009 economic year and it is quite enough to give me pause.  I decided to post this with the intention that if there are things in what he says that helps someone else to be better prepared for what "may" be coming then I have done something that helped and that is my objective.  I preface this video BECAUSE he has some startling things to say.

I look forward to hearing feedback.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nJ7LM3iyNg

[Gomer]

Hi Lou,

I too saw Gerald Celente on Beck and I was wondering about the source of his predictions. A lot of people on "the errornet" make predictions and he doesn't seem to have a technical basis for what he says on the youtube videos.

On the Beck show (on Saturday), I believe he mentioned Credit Default Swaps, but called them Credit Swap Defaults, or somehow mangled the name. I know that's pretty thin, but since they ARE the primary source of the real estate bubble, you'd think he'd be conversant with the terminology.

There are financial newsletter guys who have been right all along about this, but they charge for their work and are mainly availalble for subscribing institutional investors, and wouldn't make much if they gave away their info on TV.

All that said, it doesn't mean he's NOT right....lol... but I'm waiting to see more of him on Beck (who promised he'd be back on)

As incredible as it seems, the Beck show is the only one I can find on TV that pulls together the various ways our country is coming apart, and there's so many irritating little things that he doesn't even have time to mention!

For example, have you tried to buy ordinary incandescent light bulbs lately? You can't find them in big box stores anymore, and those horrible haz-mat curly-coil flourescents make your skin look like something out of the fishmarket. The reason is (as usual) the nanny state libtards who (people seem to forget) have had control of congress since 2006. Oh, and did I mention they're about 4X as expensive?

[1776 Rebel]

For example, have you tried to buy ordinary incandescent light bulbs lately? You can't find them in big box stores anymore, and those horrible haz-mat curly-coil flourescents make your skin look like something out of the fishmarket. The reason is (as usual) the nanny state libtards who (people seem to forget) have had control of congress since 2006. Oh, and did I mention they're about 4X as expensive?

Its cause they are illegal.... they are slowly being outlawed...so you better not be caught with an incandescant bulb concealed !

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=59298

As for

There are financial newsletter guys who have been right all along about this, but they charge for their work and are mainly availalble for subscribing institutional investors, and wouldn't make much if they gave away their info on TV.

Celente also charges for his groups work...

"The Trends Research Institute provides clients with an understanding of what to expect in the future and how best to deal with it."

They also have a journal that costs 100 bucks a year, books etc. Getting on TV is just advertising for them.

http://www.trendsresearch.com/index.htm

[alfsauve]

I did some consulting with Robert Prechter back in the 1980s. 

www.elliottwave.com/

Robert made a big splash with predicting a stock market down turn back then.  Some even said his negative forecasting may have caused it.   He was on the big networks almost weekly.   That was until he was wrong about the next market direction.

These guys all have theories but none have held up for any length of time.   Even a blind squirrel finds acorns eventually.


[And I was consulting with him about office automation, in case you're wondering.   Helped relocate his operation from the basement of his home to an office building in downtown Gainesville, GA.]

[Gomer]

I did some consulting with Robert Prechter back in the 1980s. 

www.elliottwave.com/

Robert made a big splash with predicting a stock market down turn back then.  Some even said his negative forecasting may have caused it.   He was on the big networks almost weekly.   That was until he was wrong about the next market direction.

These guys all have theories but none have held up for any length of time.   Even a blind squirrel finds acorns eventually.


[And I was consulting with him about office automation, in case you're wondering.   Helped relocate his operation from the basement of his home to an office building in downtown Gainesville, GA.]

Bob Prechter is one of the guys who really nailed this financial collapse. He has been predicting it since the 80's, but he did miss the dot com run up, so he got a bad rap there. He's written extensively about the connection between social mood, entertainment and fashion trends, and corollaries between other historical asset bubbles and now. He's calling this a "grand supercycle" collapse, or something similiar, and it only happens every hundred-or-so years.

I don't buy his products, but I'm a semi-retired NYSE trader and analyst and keep an open mind for theories that seem to fit as well as his.  Can you TRADE his advice? Well, I never could, but then I'm not sold on elliott waves as a tradeable indicator.

One complaint I have though.....his WEBSITE has NEVER worked with firefox, and barely works with IE. It's the worst paid website I've ever seen. I hope you didn't have a hand in setting that up, or I'm not making friends here, am I...

[Sponsor]

[Gomer]

Its cause they are illegal.... they are slowly being outlawed...so you better not be caught with an incandescant bulb concealed !

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=59298

There's a whole lotta things I better not be caught with these days! I can't believe how much of my "collection" has become banned, outlawed and "probable cause" these last few years.

When I was in high school, we used to make bombs out of hollowed-out light bulbs and gun powder (or other explosive fun stuff) And when the cops heard the KA-BOOM! they just told us to knock it off. Imagine the penalties for that now! We'd be freakin' "homegrown terrorists"!

[alfsauve]

One complaint I have though.....his WEBSITE has NEVER worked with firefox, and barely works with IE. It's the worst paid website I've ever seen. I hope you didn't have a hand in setting that up, or I'm not making friends here, am I...

Gosh no, Gomer.   I worked with his staff on advanced stuff (for the mid 80's) like Word Processing and Mailing List processing.  Internet wasn't anywhere near ubiquitous back then.  Short lived consulting gig as PCs rapidly replace dedicated office equipment in just a few years.

I'm impressed that anyone knows who he is.   See, as you said, Prechter's been predicting this for 20 years.  Eventually it did happen.  I haven't kept up with his writings nor visited his web site until now.

[Gomer]

Gosh no, Gomer.   I worked with his staff on advanced stuff (for the mid 80's) like Word Processing and Mailing List processing.  Internet wasn't anywhere near ubiquitous back then.  Short lived consulting gig as PCs rapidly replace dedicated office equipment in just a few years.

I'm impressed that anyone knows who he is.   See, as you said, Prechter's been predicting this for 20 years.  Eventually it did happen.  I haven't kept up with his writings nor visited his web site until now.

Well, with the world demand for instant gratification, the Prechter predictions have been suspiciously "early' by most standards. But if you delve a bit deeper, you discover that technically, the US equity market has been in a bear market footing since early 2000. And during these years, a gigantic technical "top" has formed and has now started to break. I don't think most people (especially these neo-commie political types) have ANY IDEA what they're in for, during the next decade or so.

Bob Prechter will probably be deemed to be among the "most right" newsletter writer when history looks back. But even from this advanced date, you still can't tell who's who, because while everyone is arguing about the terminology (recession, depression, inflation, deflation with "hyper" sprinkles), very few seem to realize that there IS no exit from this mess during many of our lifetimes, so the terminology clarifying "length" is fairly meaningless.

All that said, I think the elliottwave stuff is better at predicting direction and rationale, rather than timing. After all, accurate market timing depends entirely on psychology and the herd mentality is a tough nut to crack!